A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
